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Managing Partner & Chief Investment Officer

Herbert M Barber, Jr, PhD, PhD

Expertise
Econometrics
Statistical Modeling
Economic Systems
Risk Engineering
Education
PhD
PhD
MS
MS
BS
Mississippi State University
Florida State University
Florida State University
Georgia Southern University
Georgia Southern University
Herbert M Barber, Jr, PhD, PhD serves as the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Xicon Economics. Intersecting the fields of engineering, finance, econometrics, statistics, and probability theory, Dr. Barber is an expert in financial economics as it relates to the management of random walk theory and the navigation of constructs surrounding efficient market hypotheses, especially within assets and equities operating under extreme uncertainty. For over 30 years, he has provided advisory, consulting, and management of large capital investments in the private and public sectors.

Complementing and augmenting his work, Dr. Barber has published numerous scientific papers in referred journals, developed countless reports, papers, articles, and books. Further, Dr. Barber has presented his research at various universities and research symposiums, including Purdue University, Clemson University, Washington State University, the Citadel, Columbia University, Harvard University, Mississippi State University, Georgia Southern University, East Carolina University, Florida State University, Indiana State University, Canadian Society for Civil Engineering, Engineering Research Congress, and others. Additionally, he has lectured at several universities at the undergraduate, graduate, and doctoral levels.

At Xicon Economics, Dr. Barber is responsible for conducting advanced statistical and econometric analyses and modeling for the firm, as well as developing narratives for the firm’s research as necessary,be them publications, studies, reports, or papers. In so doing, his contribution focuses on the computational performances of assets, equities, and related variables, as well as economic variables related to the performances of their economies as viewed through GDP, inflation, unemployment, and similar variables. That said, Dr. Barber is an avid proponent of investigating performance as an interdependent economic system, rather than as independent measures of performance. Subsequently, his modeling philosophy is comprehensive; hence, his methods allow the firm to work around model deficiencies stemming through uncertainty while not negating these deficiencies, altogether.

Dr. Barber earned five academic degrees from Georgia Southern University, Florida State University, and Mississippi State University; and he is currently earning his third master’s degree, at Harvard University. In his first PhD at Florida State University, Dr. Barber’s research used behavioral variables to measure the performances of large capital investments, while the research for his second PhD at Mississippi State University focused on the development of robust econometric models to predict financial and economic performances of assets and equities in global energy markets under extreme uncertainty.

Recent Work

Optimization of Risk Scenarios across Hedge Funds

Dr Herbert Barber developed multiple risk models to optimize various risk scenarios across numerous hedge funds, in an effort of mitigating risk of which each hedge fund was subjected. Hedge fund strategies included event-driven, global macro, and others. Risks included both endogenous risks, such as financial risks, and exogenous risks, such as economic and political risks.

Drawdown Modeling for Energy Investment

Dr Herbert Barber developed drawdown models to predict potential pending investment drawdowns of an investment in an energy exploration corporation. The investment was to be incorporated into a hedge employing statistical arbitrage as its primary strategy. Models were back-tested against various risk scenarios before implementation.

Short Sell/Buy vs Long Buy/Sell Probability Modeling of Stock Price for Energy Trading

Dr Herbert Barber used advanced statistical analyses to develop probability models for determining whether to use short sell methods or long sell methods for securing profitability on energy trading. The models allowed users to determine which buy/sell method to use via probability theory, as well as the probability of specific daily price increases and decreases.

Econometric Investigation of World Economic Stability and its Impact on Market Output

Dr Herbert Barber investigated the impact recent world events have had on economic stability in consideration of the US financial market. He expanded upon prior global economic investigations he conducted regarding the world economic collapse and its impact on the US market in 2008.

Risk Engineering to Predict Probability of Financial Success or Failure of Revenue Streams

Dr Herbert Barber developed quantitative methods to statistically predict financial success or failure of multiple existing revenue streams of a large corporation for investment purposes. Models yielded likelihoods of failure in the three revenue streams under study to be 0.98, 0.91, and 0.87. All three revenue streams eventually failed as predicted.

Equity Pricing of Airlines using Monte Carlo Simulation

Dr Herbert Barber conducted complex probabilistic modeling to project daily stock price of an airline corporation using Monte Carlo Simulation. Models were based on over 10,0000 price simulations. Back testing of Monte Carlo models yielded accuracies from 3.7% to 4.1%.

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